Written By Lin Khine

It has been over four years since the military leader seized power from the civilian government under the pretext of election fraud and took control of the country. Since then, the military leader has continuously claimed that a nationwide general election would be held.

However, the election that the military has been promising has yet to materialize in reality.

According to the 2008 Constitution, which was drafted and approved by the military itself, an election must be held within two years of a power seizure. Yet, even after more than four years in power, the military regime has failed to organize the promised election.

The military council, which is facing ongoing attacks from resistance forces across the country and continuously losing control of towns and territories, has extended the state of emergency five times. This emergency period, according to the law, is supposed to be extended only twice each time for six months, making a total of two years beyond the initial one-year period.

In this latest extension, the military leader has once again revived the narrative of holding elections. He announced that the election is expected to be conducted in four phases over a one-month period, starting from the third week of December this year and continuing until the first and second weeks of January 2026.

However, no detailed information has been released yet about how or in what form that election will be conducted.

With the military council now only able to fully control a few major cities like Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay, along with a handful of regions, while having lost control of nearly a hundred towns, there are growing doubts about whether it can realistically hold an election.

Criticism is mounting over the lack of clarity on what plans or strategies are being put in place to conduct such an election.

The election announced by the military council

The military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, stated during a visit to Belarus in early March following his trip to Russia that the election would be completed in January 2026, and that power would be handed over to the winning party.

Citing the COVID-19 pandemic and regional instability as reasons, the military council has continuously extended the state of emergency by bypassing the constitution and is now announcing the election timeline in fragmented phases.

“This time, the announcement was more specific, but these are things that should be stated by the commission,” said a political analyst monitoring the military council’s election plans.

The phased announcement appears to come after visits to countries like Russia and Belarus, possibly driven by a perception of gaining international support. Analysts believe the military is pushing for an election now because they fear that, if delayed any further, the conditions necessary to hold an election may no longer exist at all.

“If by next year, in 2026, he still fails to carry it out from his side, then the country will no longer offer any conditions for an election at all. And inside the country, resistance forces will gain the upper hand to the extent that even the word ‘election’ won’t be able to come out of his mouth,” said U Pe Than. “That’s why I see his current actions as a desperate and illegitimate rush to hold the election in time,” he added.

The military junta has stated that the upcoming election will use a combination of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, which has been used in previous elections, along with the Proportional Representation (PR) system.

They have stated that the election will be in line with the country’s standards, and in order to prevent electoral fraud, Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) will be used. Test runs of the voting machines have also been observed.

Armed groups closely aligned with the junta and political parties registered with the junta’s election commission have continuously been spreading propaganda in support of the election organized by the military junta.

In the third week of March, the junta’s Peace Commission, led by the military, also conducted a peace dialogue that included armed groups that had signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and political parties. During the discussions, there were strong pushes for the parties and armed groups to participate in the upcoming election.

Why do they want to hold the election?

Political analysts believe that the military junta’s efforts to hold the election stem from their attempt to find a political outlet, especially considering that they have lost control of nearly a hundred towns and numerous military bases, while facing continuous attacks on cities, regional military headquarters, and military camps.

U Myo Kyaw analyzes, “According to international law, a legitimate government is one that is chosen and elevated by the people. This is also recognized by international law. Therefore, the military junta, which has seized power, is attempting to hold this election as a way to find a way to gain international legitimacy.”

U Pe Than points out, “For example, they might designate the entire Rakhine state as a single voting district and then set up ballot boxes in Sittwe. If they can’t do it in Sittwe, they’ll set them up in Yangon. Those there would then be instructed to vote. Even if only a handful of votes are cast, it’s considered an election. Since the law does not specify a minimum number of votes, they can claim that the election is successful as long as a few votes are cast.”

He also stated, “Given these arrangements, this election will only end up as a staged election, an illegitimate one, conducted with ignorance and manipulation. It will not be free and fair, nor will it be all-inclusive.”

However, in practice, international communities and political analysts believe that the junta’s election has a very slim chance of being completed successfully and will likely be fraught with risks.

The statement made by military leader General Min Aung Hlaing about holding an election was described as irrational by ​Thomas H. Andrews, the Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights Situation in Myanmar, during a conference on Myanmar and border security held in Bangkok on March 23.

He emphasized that the idea of holding an election under such circumstances is merely wishful thinking. ​Thomas H. Andrews warned that attempting to hold an election in the current unstable and highly risky situation would be extremely dangerous.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) has also released a statement, declaring that the election being proposed by the military junta is a meaningless act that would legitimize military rule.

Is the election a genuine political outlet?

Analysts point out that the military junta is planning to allow only political parties that are aligned with them and have no real chance of winning to register for the election. This is being done in order to ensure that the election produces the desired results in their favor.

U Pe Than criticized the election, saying, “Those guys are essentially staging a performance. This is supposed to be an election where people vote for themselves, represent themselves, and rely on themselves but in reality, it’s just a show. It’s merely for appearances. I believe this election is just a facade to make it look legitimate in the eyes of the public, despite all the irregularities and injustices.”

That’s why, as a military leader, he is trying to portray the election as a possible way out of the current conflict and deadlock. However, in reality, many are pointing out that it is unlikely to be a real solution and could actually lead to further unrest.

“A sham election like this is far from being genuine or aligned with the real needs of the country. It won’t be able to stop the resistance forces either. I only see the country heading toward more chaos,” said a party leader.

Earlier last year, the military council issued a new Political Parties Registration Law requiring all previously existing political parties to re-register. Under this law, the registration fees and the required number of party members were significantly increased.

In addition, major parties like the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) were deregistered as political parties. Even strong parties like the Arakan National Party (ANP) were not granted permission to register under the new law.

Looking at the parties that the military council has allowed to register, most of them are either closely aligned with the junta or are smaller parties with little popular support. These include the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is known to be close to the military; the People’s Pioneer Party (PPP) led by Daw Thet Thet Khine; the Arakan Front Party (AFP) led by former ANP chairman Dr. Aye Maung; the People’s Party (PP) led by former 88 Generation student leader Ko Ko Gyi; and several other minor parties that failed to win even a single seat in previous elections.

U Myo Kyaw, the General Secretary of the ALD party, criticized those parties, saying they are betraying the people because they are acting in accordance with the military council’s interests.

“It’s a clear betrayal of the people—especially from those who consider themselves politicians. Some of them accept positions and privileges, so they behave one way. But as politicians, they should stand with the people. Now, these individuals are completely going against the public. It’s nothing short of a betrayal,” said U Myo Kyaw.

The military council now has no other choice but to withdraw from politics.

Political analysts have also pointed out that even if the military council manages to hold an election, it no longer has the political ground to use it as a way out.

Therefore, they argue that the only viable path left is for the military to fully withdraw from politics and move toward dialogue.

“What the military council should really do at this point is to stop the fighting and call for peace talks,” said U Pe Than.

He added that in such negotiations, instead of clinging to the Constitution and preventing any meaningful discussions, the focus should be on reflecting the genuine will of the people.

“Whether it’s a federal system or a confederate one, what matters is allowing regions to govern themselves freely and independently,” said U Pe Than.

Veteran Rakhine politician U Myo Kyaw also emphasized that as long as the military remains involved in politics, the country will continue to deteriorate.

He said, “The tyrant must be overthrown. It’s necessary to cut it off at the root and completely remove it.”

Analysts have pointed out that the chances of the military’s election succeeding are extremely slim. Even if it does happen, it is likely to escalate into further attacks and conflicts, pushing the country into more unrest and potentially transforming it into a failed state.

Therefore, they argue that the only viable course for the military is to completely withdraw from politics.

U Pe Than pointed out, “If the military pledges to completely withdraw from the political sphere and follows through with it, the revolutionary forces will likely be more interested in engaging. Without that, peace talks will not succeed.”

As for whether the military’s election will actually take place, and what the state of the country will be, it remains to be seen and will require close observation.

U Pe Than commented, “To put it bluntly, this election is like trying to give life-saving treatment to a terminally ill patient, hoping to show off some good deed before time runs out.”

On March 28, an extremely powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 struck six regions, including Nay Pyi Taw, where the military leaders reside. The earthquake resulted in the deaths of thousands of people.

As a result of the earthquake, many civilians have been left homeless and displaced. In addition, there are numerous missing persons, people who have been injured, and many others who have become disabled due to the disaster.

The powerful earthquake, which had its epicenter 12 miles northeast of Mandalay city, affected several regions, including Mandalay Division, Sagaing Division, Magway Division, Bago Division, Shan State, and Nay Pyi Taw’s military-controlled areas. On March 28, the military junta’s National Disaster Management Committee declared a state of emergency in these areas in response to the disaster.

However, during the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) summit held in Thailand from April 4 to 6, General Min Aung Hlaing, the military leader, stated that despite the earthquake, there would be no changes to the planned elections.

Additionally, the military junta had announced a temporary ceasefire from April 2 to April 22, lasting for three weeks. However, many Myanmar citizens report that the military continues to carry out attacks despite the announcement.

As a result, analysts observing the situation in Myanmar suggest that while the military junta is determined to proceed with the election under forceful conditions, the ongoing conflicts are likely to continue, exacerbating the situation further.